Currently, 14 analysts recommend the stock as a 'strong buy'; 1 analyst recommends as a 'buy'; 5 analysts recommend as a 'hold'; 1 analyst rates as 'underperform'; and 1 analyst rates as 'sell'.
Analysts' target price estimates range from a low of $28 to a high of $57, compared to a consensus of $46.
Currently, analysts' EPS estimates for 4Q11, range from a low of $3.38 to a high of $4.3, with a consensus of $4.03. CEO Vikram Pandit stated at a Goldman conference that his company plans to cut 4,500 jobs - a larger cut than was previously reported - and will take a $400 million charge related to the move in Q4.
For the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2011, the consensus EPS* forecast has decreased over the past week from $0.81 to $0.78 (-3.70%) and decreased over the past month from $0.82 to $0.78 (-4.88%).Of the 3 analysts making quarterly forecasts, none raised and 0 lowered their forecast.
|
Stock Price ($) in
|
High
|
Low
|
|
Q1
|
51.3
|
43.9
|
|
Q2
|
45.9
|
4.52#
|
|
Q3
|
42.88
|
23.11
|
|
Q4*
|
34.16
|
23.11
|
#On May 6, 2011, the stock was split 1:10 so the low price is not comparable
*Q4 to date
Fiscal
Quarter End
|
Date
Reported
|
Earnings
Per Share ($)
|
Consensus
EPS ($)
|
Forecast %
Surprise
|
|
Dec2011
|
01/17/2012*
|
|
0.03*
|
|
|
Sep2011
|
10/17/2011
|
1.23
|
0.81
|
51.85
|
|
Jun2011
|
07/15/2011
|
1.09
|
0.96
|
13.54
|
|
Mar2011
|
04/18/2011
|
1
|
0.9
|
11.11
|
*likely
Based on the latest 13-F info, investor confidence on the stock is trending down. For instance, new positions to sold out positions is unfavorable at 96-160; while increased positions to decreased positions is unfavorable at 441-505.
Japanese regulators are reportedly looking to impose penalties on Citigroup as part of a probe into whether Citi attempted to manipulate the Tokyo interbank offered rate.
On November 11, the company announced that an investor group agreed to acquire EMI Music Publishing from a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company for total consideration of $2.2 billion. Few days later, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. announced that they reached a total out-of-court settlement of $165.5 billion with the National Credit Union Administration or NCUA, regarding potential claims relating to the sale of residential mortgage-backed securities to five failed wholesale credit unions. In connection with this settlement, Citigroup agreed to pay NCUA $20.5 million. Towards the end of November, a federal judge rejected a $285 million settlement that Citigroup reached with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over a mortgage-bond deal, saying it is neither fair, nor reasonable, nor adequate, nor in the public interest. So, it is clear from these recent developments that risks relating to legal suits could affect the performance of the company and its stock. However, I still continue to maintain that risk-reward equation is still favorable and that the stock is a decent buy.
Based on log-normal random walk analysis, I think there is a 95 percent probability that the stock price could be anywhere within $10.23-$60.42.
